Khamenei warns US and Israel against renewed strikes as truce frays
Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei warned the United States and Israel on Saturday that any renewed attack on Iranian territory would provoke a response they would regret. The warning comes amid open threats of fresh military action from President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, stoking fears that the ceasefire which halted last year's direct confrontation is close to collapse. Diplomatic channels between Washington and Tehran have gone quiet in recent weeks.
Khamenei stopped short of declaring the truce dead, but officials around him have grown markedly harder in their public language. Hardliners in Tehran are pressing for acceleration of the nuclear programme as bargaining leverage, while negotiators report that talks on enrichment levels, inspections and sanctions relief have stalled. Israel's military, for its part, has kept up strikes against Iran-aligned militias across the region.
Gulf capitals are quietly recalculating their security arrangements, aware that a second round of hostilities would disrupt shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and send oil prices surging. European governments have restarted shuttle diplomacy in an effort to salvage the ceasefire. Markets are already trading with a risk premium built in.
Congo's Ebola outbreak passes 5,000 deaths, stoking continent-wide alarm
Deaths in Congo's Ebola outbreak have crossed the 5,000 mark, by far the heaviest toll the virus has inflicted on a single country. Health authorities confirmed the grim milestone as the disease continues its relentless advance through the country's eastern provinces. Neighbouring states are screening border crossings amid mounting fear that the epidemic could spread across the continent.
Clinics in the outbreak zone are stretched past capacity, with burial teams and vaccination campaigns unable to keep pace with transmission chains. Armed groups operating in the east have obstructed contact tracing, forcing responders to abandon entire health zones for weeks at a time. Uganda, Rwanda and Burundi have tightened surveillance along their frontiers.
The World Health Organization has convened its emergency committee as officials draw comparisons with the 2014 West African epidemic, which killed more than 11,000 people. African Union health officials are pressing wealthy governments for vaccine doses and emergency funding, arguing the response remains chronically underfinanced. Every week of delay, they warn, expands the map of potential spread.
North Korea behind record $6.3bn Binance hack, FBI confirms
The FBI has formally attributed the $6.3bn theft from cryptocurrency exchange Binance to North Korea, confirming the biggest digital asset heist in history was a state operation. Binance said it would cover roughly 90 percent of affected customer losses from its own reserves, an unprecedented corporate intervention that still leaves a shortfall running into hundreds of millions of dollars. The breach dwarfed every previous cryptocurrency theft on record.
Investigators traced the intrusion to North Korean hacking units, with hallmarks of the Lazarus Group: compromised signing infrastructure and rapid laundering through mixing services and cross-chain bridges. The forensic trail points to months of patient reconnaissance before the funds were moved. Pyongyang has relied for years on stolen crypto to finance its weapons programmes, and this haul eclipses previous records several times over.
The theft has intensified regulatory pressure on exchanges over custody standards and proof-of-reserves claims, with lawmakers in Washington and Brussels demanding tougher capital requirements. Customers left to absorb the remaining losses have already threatened class-action litigation. Analystysts expect the episode to accelerate an industry-wide migration toward cold storage and independent audits.
Israelis rally for Eisenkot-Arab coalition to oust Netanyahu
Thousands of demonstrators rallied across Israeli cities on Sunday, demanding that centrist leader Gadi Eisenkot sign a coalition agreement with Arab parties to end Benjamin Netanyahu's tenure as prime minister. A rival protest staged by Netanyahu's supporters accused the would-be coalition of seeking power alongside "terrorists". The duelling rallies laid bare the sharpest fault line in Israeli politics.
Election results left neither bloc with a clear path to sixty-one seats, making the participation of an Arab-led bloc decisive. Eisenkot, a former military chief of staff, has held exploratory talks with Arab party leaders, reportedly offering commitments on housing, policing and the conduct of the war. Netanyahu's camp has answered with furious attacks framing any such pact as an existential threat.
Only once before has an Arab party formally joined an Israeli governing coalition, and the memory of that experiment's collapse looms over the current talks. A government built on such a pact would reshape policy toward Gaza, the occupied territories and the judiciary. Failure would push the country toward yet another election.
King Charles to address slavery in landmark Commonwealth speech
King Charles III will confront the legacy of slavery on Tuesday in a speech to the Commonwealth Heads of Government Meeting in Antigua, closing a nine-day tour of the Caribbean. The address will be the fullest royal reckoning yet with a history the palace has largely confined to expressions of sorrow. Protests and demands for a formal apology have shadowed the tour at nearly every stop.
Caribbean leaders arrive at the summit with a common demand: an apology and movement toward reparatory justice, building on a regional ten-point plan first set out more than a decade ago. Buckingham Palace has previously expressed profound sorrow while stopping short of an apology, a line drawn in consultation with a British government that fears open-ended liability. Charles has signalled a greater willingness than any of his predecessors to face the subject directly.
Historians have documented the royal family's profits from the transatlantic trade, stretching back to the seventeenth-century royal charter behind the Royal African Company. The speech will test whether the palace can acknowledge injustice without conceding a legal position on compensation. Republic debates in Jamaica and the Bahamas are likely to quicken whichever way the words land.
Alaska calls Trump ballot demand "not even possible"
Alaska's attorneys have urged a federal judge to reject a Justice Department demand to set aside Senate ballots cast for "the second Dan Sullivan", branding the request meritless and "not even possible". Filed on Friday, the DOJ motion asks the court to quarantine ballots for a candidate it argues may have fooled voters into wasting their votes on a spoiler bearing the incumbent senator's name. The intervention lands in the middle of a knife-edge race that could help decide Senate control.
President Donald Trump and his allies contend that the second Sullivan was planted to siphon votes from the incumbent, and that the spoiler's total could determine the outcome. State lawyers counter that ballots cannot be separated at this stage without destroying the secrecy of the vote, and that federal courts have no business second-guessing state certification. Ranked-choice ballots, which carry multiple rankings, complicate any untangling further.
The case has become the sharpest test yet of federal authority over state election administration, with the Senate's balance of power potentially hanging on the result. Election law scholars note that judges are deeply reluctant to set aside votes after they have been cast. A ruling either way will be appealed, and the state's certification deadline is fast approaching.
Scientists crack two-decade mystery of gut bacterium and colon cancer
Researchers at Johns Hopkins have solved a puzzle that has frustrated cancer scientists for nearly two decades: exactly how a common gut bacterium drives colorectal cancer. The microbe, Bacteroides fragilis, produces a toxin that damages the intestinal lining and sets the disease process in motion. Their work finally supplies the molecular link between years of association studies and a proven mechanism of causation.
The team traced how the toxin breaches the colon's protective mucus layer, invades epithelial cells and triggers a cascade of inflammation and DNA damage that can culminate in tumours. Tumour samples from patients carried the genetic signatures of that process. Strikingly, the pathway shows up in cancers diagnosed in younger adults, a group whose incidence has been climbing for a generation.
Colorectal cancer ranks among the most common malignancies worldwide, and the findings open a path to stool and blood tests that detect the toxin or the body's response to it. Preventive strategies could target the bacterium itself in high-risk patients. Work now turns to whether eradicating the organism can stop precancerous lesions from progressing.
| Ticker | Name | Price | Day | Week | Month | Year | 3Yr | 5Yr | 10Yr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ^GSPTSE | S&P/TSX Composite | 35620.00 CAD | ▼1.74% | ▼0.47% | ▲1.09% | ▲18.16% | ▲90.10% | ▲67.35% | ▲144.03% |
| BNS | Scotiabank | 131.05 CAD | ▼1.79% | ▲0.81% | ▲2.17% | ▲49.76% | ▲177.56% | ▲109.70% | ▲212.59% |
| RY | Royal Bank | 283.93 CAD | ▼1.49% | ▲1.40% | ▲2.06% | ▲42.48% | ▲188.64% | ▲156.09% | ▲402.42% |
| CM | CIBC | 162.95 CAD | ▼1.97% | ▲2.11% | ▲3.97% | ▲45.59% | ▲282.75% | ▲173.26% | ▲427.65% |
| NA | National Bank | 210.58 CAD | ▼1.29% | ▲2.74% | ▲3.68% | ▲39.47% | ▲171.85% | ▲143.83% | ▲580.62% |
| TD | TD Bank | 174.04 CAD | ▼2.30% | ▼0.25% | ▲4.73% | ▲57.23% | ▲159.18% | ▲140.17% | ▲347.85% |
| BMO | BMO | 239.22 CAD | ▼2.19% | ▲1.70% | ▲1.23% | ▲41.73% | ▲162.61% | ▲116.96% | ▲331.64% |
| XEQT | World | 44.64 CAD | ▼1.72% | ▼0.45% | ▼2.04% | ▲14.01% | ▲89.68% | ▲81.93% | –0.00% |
| SPY | S&P 500 ETF | 755.72 USD | ▼1.77% | ▼0.56% | ▼1.08% | ▲11.13% | ▲89.94% | ▲77.37% | ▲313.55% |
| QQQ | Nasdaq 100 | 690.49 USD | ▼3.47% | ▼1.97% | ▼6.95% | ▲9.12% | ▲104.35% | ▲88.25% | ▲525.38% |
| AAPL | Apple | 344.63 USD | ▼1.23% | ▼0.89% | ▲4.33% | ▲28.25% | ▲109.29% | ▲137.71% | ▲1192.46% |
| MSFT | Microsoft | 521.91 USD | ▼1.55% | ▼0.50% | ▲1.78% | ▼2.83% | ▲62.90% | ▲76.49% | ▲885.18% |
| NVDA | NVIDIA | 204.64 USD | ▼4.22% | ▼3.00% | ▼11.36% | ▼0.92% | ▲408.98% | ▲787.25% | ▲12250.42% |
| GLD | Gold ETF | 355.78 USD | ▼3.47% | ▼2.95% | ▼7.05% | ▼1.99% | ▲93.35% | ▲110.61% | ▲194.45% |
| CL=F | WTI Crude Oil | 99.48 USD | ▼4.46% | ▼2.24% | ▲9.19% | ▲64.24% | ▲22.78% | ▲20.13% | ▲99.12% |
| BTC-USD | Bitcoin | 77857.76 USD | ▼0.50% | ▼4.20% | ▼4.78% | ▲20.49% | ▲25.31% | ▲185.97% | ▲969.75% |
7 AM: 10°C, few clouds, wind 1 km/h 10 AM: 12°C, scattered clouds, wind 0 km/h 1 PM: 17°C, broken clouds, wind 2 km/h 4 PM: 17°C, overcast clouds, wind 2 km/h 7 PM: 13°C, overcast clouds, wind 2 km/h 10 PM: 13°C, overcast clouds, wind 2 km/h 1 AM: 11°C, overcast clouds, wind 2 km/h 4 AM: 11°C, light rain, wind 2 km/h
Next game: TOR @ LA Clippers — Monday Nov 2, 10:00 PM ET — at Intuit Dome — TV/stream: NBA League Pass, KTLA, ClipperVision
| # | Team | W | L | GB |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 76ers | 6 | 1 | - |
| 2 | Pistons | 5 | 1 | 0.5 |
| 3 | Celtics | 5 | 1 | 0.5 |
| 4 | Cavaliers | 4 | 2 | 1.5 |
| 5 | Raptors | 3 | 3 | 2.5 |
| 6 | Wizards | 3 | 3 | 2.5 |
| 7 | Hawks | 3 | 4 | 3 |
| 8 | Hornets | 3 | 4 | 3 |
| 9 | Magic | 2 | 4 | 3.5 |
| 10 | Heat | 2 | 4 | 3.5 |
| 11 | Knicks | 2 | 4 | 3.5 |
| 12 | Pacers | 2 | 5 | 4 |
| 13 | Bulls | 1 | 5 | 4.5 |
| 14 | Bucks | 1 | 5 | 4.5 |
| 15 | Nets | 1 | 5 | 4.5 |
| # | Team | W | L | GB |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Grizzlies | 6 | 0 | - |
| 2 | Rockets | 6 | 1 | 0.5 |
| 3 | Trail Blazers | 4 | 1 | 1.5 |
| 4 | Lakers | 5 | 2 | 1.5 |
| 5 | Thunder | 4 | 2 | 2 |
| 6 | Spurs | 4 | 2 | 2 |
| 7 | Mavericks | 4 | 2 | 2 |
| 8 | Nuggets | 3 | 2 | 2.5 |
| 9 | Warriors | 4 | 3 | 2.5 |
| 10 | Timberwolves | 4 | 3 | 2.5 |
| 11 | Pelicans | 2 | 4 | 4 |
| 12 | Suns | 1 | 3 | 4 |
| 13 | Clippers | 1 | 5 | 5 |
| 14 | Jazz | 1 | 5 | 5 |
| 15 | Kings | 0 | 6 | 6 |
Every time you check a weather app, weigh a medical diagnosis, or buy an insurance policy, you are betting your money — or your health — on a number. Meteorologists announce a 70 percent chance of rain; oncologists quote five-year survival odds; bookmakers post prices on horses. Yet few of us pause to ask what those numbers actually mean. Press the question seriously and you enter one of philosophy's most consequential debates: the interpretation of probability.
The mathematics, oddly enough, is the settled part. In 1933 the Soviet mathematician Andrey Kolmogorov distilled centuries of work — begun in Fermat and Pascal's seventeenth-century letters about gambling — into three axioms. Probabilities are numbers between 0 and 1; something certain gets 1; and the probabilities of mutually exclusive events, outcomes that cannot both occur, can simply be added together. From those slender rules flows the entire machinery of modern statistics, from dice games to clinical trials. What the axioms never tell you is what the numbers describe. Is "0.7" a fact about rain, a fact about us, or something stranger?
The oldest answer, associated with Pascal and later Laplace, defines probability by counting equally likely cases: a fair die has six faces, so each face gets one-sixth. Elegant, but circular — it explains probability in terms of equally probable possibilities, and collapses when cases refuse to divide evenly.
Austere frequentists such as Richard von Mises and Hans Reichenbach identified probability with long-run frequency instead: the probability of heads is the proportion of heads across indefinitely many tosses. This anchors probability in observable data. The cost is that unique events become unintelligible. Tomorrow's forecast concerns a day that will happen exactly once, so it has no long run to lean on.
Bayesians like Frank Ramsey and Bruno de Finetti took the opposite route. Probability, on their view, is degree of belief — a rational agent's confidence, measurable by the odds they would accept. De Finetti went so far as to declare that probability does not exist, meaning it has no life outside minds. The defense is practical: if your degrees of belief violate Kolmogorov's axioms, a shrewd bookie can craft a set of bets guaranteeing your loss. Coherence, not correspondence to the world, is the only constraint. Dissatisfied with both camps, Karl Popper proposed that physical setups carry propensities — genuine tendencies for particular outcomes to occur — though critics wonder where such tendencies could live, and how one could ever verify them.
The deepest tension remains unresolved. A hospital telling a patient that a drug works 30 percent of the time appears to be describing the drug itself. A frequentist can only mean that 30 percent of similar patients recovered; a Bayesian only that her confidence in this patient's recovery is 0.3. Same number, different realities. Whether probability is discovered in the world or constructed in the mind — and whether science can coherently do both at once — is a question still open.
Want to go deeper? Read the full Stanford Encyclopedia entry on Interpretations of Probability →
| Habit | Target | Sun | Mon | Tue | Wed | Thu | Fri | Sat | Done |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. Pushup routine | 7 | ☐ | ☐ | ☐ | ☐ | ☐ | ☐ | ☐ | 0/7 |
| 2. Workout | 2 | ☐ | ☐ | ☐ | ☐ | ☐ | ☐ | ☐ | 0/2 |
| 3. Cardio 30 mins | 2 | ☐ | ☐ | ☐ | ☐ | ☐ | ☐ | ☐ | 0/2 |
| 4. Meditate | 7 | ☐ | ☐ | ☐ | ☐ | ☐ | ☐ | ☐ | 0/7 |
| 5. No sugars | 5 | ☐ | ☐ | ☐ | ☐ | ☐ | ☐ | ☐ | 0/5 |